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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd